A T FIRST the mood in Lebanon was jubilant. Thousands of people jumped into their cars and drove south on the morning of November 27th, hours after a ceasefire ended the year-long war between Israel and Hizbullah, a Shia militia. They were eager to return to homes from which they had fled months earlier.

The IDF said it conducted a strike on military infrastructure sites near the border crossings between Lebanon and Syria, calling it a response to cease-fire violations.

Back then, Syrian rebels were closing in on the regime’s strongholds, even as Assad leaned heavily on Iran and Hezbollah for support in the years prior. Moscow’s intervention turned the tide, culminating in the recapture of the largest Syrian city of Aleppo and a fragile stability that has largely held since.